As promised, here’s my take on the nine Senate races that I see being in play tomorrow (earlier poll closing times listed first).

Virginia: It is generally agreed among the pundits that Sen. Allen has run the worst campaign of this election cycle; and for once, the consensus seems to be dead on. However, Virginia is still strongly Republican; the people of Virgina haven’t forgotten Allen’s highly popular term as governor; and while opponent Jim Webb may be strikingly conservative himself for a Democrat, he is still a notably lackluster candidate. Plus, the Washington Post’s over-the-top partisanship in this race will be helping Republicans turn out their voters with the reliable “Annoy The Media: Re-Elect Senator Allen” message. Allen will hold this seat for the Republicans, winning by 4 or 5 points.

Ohio: Sen DeWine excites no one…unless you are willing to call the frequent exasperation of Ohio conservatives “excitement”. And the Ohio Republican party continues to implode as the Bob Taft administration stumbles to its end, with Gov. Taft’s approval ratings lurking somewhere below those of rabid skunks and lawyers (if still slightly ahead of rabid skunks who also happen to be lawyers). Some polls continue to suggest that DeWine has a chance…but he doesn’t. Sherrod Brown picks this one up for the Democrats, probably by a good 10 points.

Maryland: Republicans don’t win statewide races in Maryland very often, especially in years like this. But Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is an impressive candidate, and may just be the man to crack open the black vote in places like Prince Georges County—especially since he’s running not against Frizzell Gray (a.k.a. Kweisi Mfume), but Ben Cardin, a person of pallor who gets some tepid reviews on the campaign trail. Is the magical letter D going to be enough to help Cardin hold onto the 80-plus percent of the black vote he’s relying on? I’m doubting it. Steele picks up this seat for the Republicans in a nail-biter that may find its way into the courtroom before it’s all said and done.

Missouri: Sen. Talent seems to be in a real close contest in this perennial bellweather state. The fight over a constitutional amendment on embryonic stem-cell research has dominated the headlines, with the pro-research (and pro-cloning) side bringing in Michael J. Fox to accuse Republicans of heartlessness in the service of pro-life ideology, and amendment opponents countering with Patricia Heaton, Jim Caviezel, and several members of the World Series champion Cardinals accusing amendment supporters of dishonesty and obfuscation and overpromising on the uncertain benefits of their research. Whoever wins the amendment fight will likely win the Senate race as well; I predict that Sen. Talent and the anti-amendment side will prevail, by 2 and 4 points respectively, holding the Senate seat for the Republicans and giving Jeff Suppan dreams of a political career after his pitching days are through.

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez, in the best Garden State tradition, is racing to get re-elected before the indictments start coming down. Any sensible state would gladly hand this seat instead to a son of a former Governor, who seems moderate and competent enough in his own right. But this is New Jersey we’re talking about here. Menendez will hold this one for the Democrats, with a margin of 6…which, oddly enough, is also the length of the prison term I’m predicting a former Menendez ally will receive sometime next year.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Santorum drew a dream opponent in this race, in every respect save that opponent’s last name: Casey. That single, solitary feature, attached to a man who is a complete nonentity in all other respects, shouldn’t be enough to win a high-profile race in today’s United States of America…yet it might suffice in this one anyhow. Santorum is being squeezed several different ways here: he is a hate-figure in many sectors of the Left; the Casey name is a powerful draw in moderate circles; and many in his conservative base remain miffed at his full-bore support for Arlen Specter in the senior Senator’s narrow escape from Pat Toomey’s primary challenge two years ago. Firing up your opposition while depressing your base is an effective strategy for losing most any race, and Santorum’s failure to gain any traction in the polls seems to stand as proof. I’d love to see Santorum shock the world and pull this one off, as he’s been saying he will on the campaign trail…but it just doesn’t look possible. Casey by 5 or 6 points, and a pickup for both the Democratic and Empty Suit parties.

Tennessee: Harold Ford wants to be the next Barack Obama, and on the surface he seems to have many of the same ingredients. An “articulate” and “telegenic” rising young star with a “compelling personal story” (translation of the above: he’s a young black Democrat), who is able to give off an air of moderation without meaningfully deviating from standard Democratic positions—all he needs is to attach “Senator-elect” to the front of his name and the White House buzz can commence for him too. He is smooth (though not unfailingly smooth…how many days did it take again for him to finally spit out “I like football and I like girls”?) and skilled enough to have tempted Instapundit; but I’m not sure that’s enough. Tennessee is red enough to have rejected its own sorta-native son for President in 2000, and Bob Corker’s career to date has been distant enough from Washington for him to avoid being pulled under by either the President’s or the Republican House’s unpopularity. Corker holds this one for the Republicans by 3 or 4 points.

Rhode Island: The million or three that the NRSC spent on saving Sen. Chafee from his primary challenger looks like the biggest waste of resources this election season. If Chafee—who rather literally inherited the seat from his late father—were to prevail tomorrow, it would merely continue the headache of having a “Republican” Senator who is so disloyal that he publicly bragged about not voting for President Bush last time around. But this empty-suit son of the New England aristocracy has worn out his welcome, and will give way to…a different empty-suit son of the New England aristocracy, Sheldon Whitehouse. Sorry they let so many rank commoners from flyover country into Congress, Mr. Senator-elect; but do try to enjoy the perks of the Senatorial lifestyle anyway. This one is a Democratic pickup (of a sort) with an 9-point win for Whitehouse, and at the same time an Empty Suit Party hold.

Montana: This Mountain West state is not as true red as it used to be, and Sen. Burns’ direct and folksy ways are not as endearing to Montana voters as they used to be (such qualities have an inherent sell-by date). What hasn’t changed is the West’s traditional suspicion of people who stay in Washington too long, and that cuts against the 71-year-old Senator finishing his third term, especially with apparent ties to the Abramoff scandal to fan the flame. Burns’ opponent, Jon Tester, has the right sort of street cred for this part of the country (farmer and former music teacher hailing from a very small town; down-to-earth style; moderate views on most issues…when he has views) and should take advantage of this opening. Tester by 3 points for a Democratic pickup.

For those of you keeping score at home, that is four pickups for the Democrats and one for the Republicans, yielding a Republican majority of 52-48 in the new Senate. Which might be enough to get a few more good judges confirmed. (Emphasis on the word “might”.)