It has been encouraging to see the leaking and finger-pointing and other signs of collapsing morale in the McCain camp recede this week; and many commenters, from the NRO gang to the irrepressible Rush Limbaugh, seem to be of good cheer. Your humble Blog Goliard has been feeling less like he is just grasping at straws in identifying a McCain path to victory.

Though I also, somewhat perversely, continue to take some comfort from the fact that so many folks continue to see this one as being in the bag. (Have you seen McCain’s Intrade odds lately?) This is a function of both past experience and pure cussedness.

When opinion is running 2-1 or 3-1 in favor of a certain outcome, I usually feel secure placing my bet with the 2 or 3. But when it gets to 8-1 or 9-1, I’m moved to carefully investigate the thinking behind the minority…and if it is not obviously deranged or pure wishful thinking, I then plump for the 1. You’d be surprised how often this “follow the crowd but buck the stampede” approach pays off.

That said, all I know for sure about Tuesday is that: a) it is more likely than not that Obama will win, and b) beyond that, nobody really knows anything.

We soon shall.