Your humble Blog Goliard has taken some time to tardily commit his thoughts on the Libyan situation to paper (er…okay, to electrons); and it has been a bit of a struggle to reconcile an “I told you so” tone with the whole practicing-humility aspect of Lent.

That would be because it has been clear to this observer, since the day the Arab League called for action against Libya (said action to be taken by others for them, of course) that a heel turn was coming. Recent news reports indicate that this turn—from inciting the intervention in Libya to opposing and undermining it—is already underway. It may be coming a skosh sooner than some might have guessed; but in no other sense does any politically-aware grownup has any excuse to be surprised by this.

Why would the members of the Arab League have chosen to call upon us, and wait passively for us to act, if they were so deeply concerned for the well-being of their Libyan brethren? Have they not planes and ships and tanks of their own? (Of course they do. We sold these things to them ourselves.) Are they not capable of striking against their enemies without the assistance, or even approval, of anyone outside their circle? (Of course they are. Just ask Israel.)

But they are not lifting a finger militarily, and have no intention of doing so, because the fate of Libya’s “rebels” is a secondary consideration…one is even tempted to call it a pretext. Instead, foremost in their minds is the glorious opportunity they have been given to draw the United States and its allies into a trap. (Cue Admiral Akbar.)

Once the cruise missiles and bombs started falling, it was inevitable that a large enough share of them would come directly from U.S. aircraft and ships that it wouldn’t matter to the Arab world how many of our allies were also involved, or even technically “leading” operations. The average person in the Arab world would see this as a Yankee military action, full stop, and any and all collateral damage would be charged entirely to Uncle Sam’s account.

It was inevitable that such damage would ensue…and even more inevitable that Qaddafi’s goons would work to both maximize real collateral damage (you think his Tripoli compounds became crowded with civilians by happenstance?) and spin fanciful tales of invented carnage for the eager consumption of the Arab street.

Which would be all the Arab League would need to start their turn. “Yes, we called for a no-fly zone, but we didn’t mean for them to do this” is their opening line, but it is just the start. It won’t take long before they join Qaddafi and Putin (!) in baying about infidel crusaders spilling Muslim blood.

Here’s what we should have done, in your humble Blog Goliard’s opinion. When the Arab League called for action, we ought to have applauded them, and offered to rearm, refuel, and repair any of their fighter jets employed in the fight against Qaddafi, free of charge, at any airbase of ours or theirs they might find it expedient to use.

We would then have needed to set our diplomats to work crafting appropriately unctuous and rueful statements for release in the coming days and weeks, expressing our deep regret that the Arab League never took us up on our offer, and instead sat on their keisters while the people of Benghazi who are so dear to their hearts faced terror and massacre…which we join them in deploring in the strongest possible terms.

But no. That would require us both to correctly identify and to fully understand our enemies. It would also require us to be able to think at least two or three moves ahead. (Though right now, I’d be grateful for signs that they were thinking even one move ahead. Doesn’t anybody up there in D.C. know how to play this game?)

P.S. Looking forward now, here’s a question yours truly hasn’t seen asked yet. Let’s say we luck out, and the allied air campaign does soon lead to the complete triumph of the “rebels” in Libya. Suppose also that this victory leads to vicious reprisals (as victories of irregular forces tend to do) against Qaddafi’s supporters, collaborators, suspected supporters and collaborators, and also the odd innocent Tripolean or two…or hundred…or thousand. Do we then resume our air campaign, this time against Qaddafi’s vanquishers? And to whom will we then be able to look, to help us get rid of them?